Kansas City Chiefs – KC did not finish the regular season playing it’s best football of the year. The Cleveland Browns came into the playoffs hot and destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road last week. Something has to give. Bye Bye Browns, it was real. The Chiefs offense will rely on the arm of the best player in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs run game has been suspect of late but the passing game remains the most dangerous in the NFL. Hill, Kelce and Hardman are an explosive, game breaking trio. The Chiefs defense is once again top 10 and Andy Reid has been one of the game’s best head coaches for two decades now. Chiefs roll but don’t cover the 10 point spread. ML play on KC this weekend.
New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees played ok last week against a tough and talented Bears defense. The Saints caught some early breaks when the Bears offense couldn’t capitalize on some early opportunites. It was a gritty team win for New Orleans. The Saints are a well rounded team hitting on all cylinders. Brees is pushing the ball downfield with accuracy and RB Alvin Kamara is running the ball well. Micheal Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders provide the offense with veteran experience and a whole lot of talent at the skill positions. They are a mismatch for a Buccaneers secondary that has been torched lately. The New Orleans defensive line will pressure Brady into turnovers. Brady has lived off the short passing game but this will be the third meeting between the two teams this season and the Saints defense will be well prepared for what Tom Brady is going to try and exploit. Saints cover the 3 point spread and win big to advance to the NFC Championship Game.
Cleveland Browns – I said the Browns would cover last week and did they ever. The Browns entered Pittsburgh as +6 point dogs and I didn’t see it. Pittsburgh struggled for most of the 2nd half of the season and was the worst 11-0 team in recent memory. The Steelers had no threat of a run game entering last week and their passing game was hit and miss. The Browns literally dominated from the first snap of the game scoring a defensive TD on a botched snap and ended up with the 48-37 road win. The Cleveland defense helped the Browns get off to a 21-0 lead before the 8 minute mark of the 1st quarter. They pressured Big Ben into turnovers and the Browns offense capitalized. Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb played like stars and the Browns earned a ticket to Kansas City to face the high powered defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The Browns enter the game as +10 point road dogs. Former Chief Kareem Hunt comes back to KC and has revenge on his mind. The Chiefs released Hunt after video surfaced of Hunt involved in an altercation with a female. The Browns snapped him up and he has paid big dividends for Cleveland. The Browns have a shot to win this game but they have to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. That requires the simple formula of running the rock and playing sound defensive football with no mental errors. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the Browns keys to victory. If they can get the run game going and control the clock it will limit the Chiefs offensive opportunities.
The Browns can’t fall into a pass happy trap, which is easy to do against a team like the Chiefs, who can apply offensive pressure unlike any offense in the history of the NFL (with the exception of some 1980’s San Francisco 49ers offenses)😁 The Chiefs defense will force Mayfield into mistakes if he drops back more than 30 times. The Browns defense on the other hand cannot afford the defensive lapses like the ones suffered in the 2nd half of their win over the Steelers. Up 28-0 at one point the Browns defense allowed the gap to be closed to 12 points by the 4th quarter and the outcome might have been different had the Steelers gone for it and made it on the now infamous 4th and 1 call to punt. If you are looking to take a chance on a ML play this weekend stay away from the Browns. I think you are better off going with the Ravens over the Bills. However if we are talking about the Browns at +10 I like it. I like it but I don’t love it. The lack of a Chiefs running game and the fact they have struggled offensively the last month of the season is enough for me to take Cleveland to cover. Factor in that the Browns have heard they have no chance all week and this is a playoff game, I like the Browns to cover and win the 1st half. Browns +10. Browns 1st half +6.5. Browns 1st quarter +3. Browns ML 1st half +271.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Buccaneers are +3 point road dogs in New Orleans. I don’t think that’s enough. You already read above why I like the Saints in this game. If the Buccaneers are going to win this game head coach Bruce Arians needs to take the ball out of Brady’s hands and feed breakout star RB Ronald Jones and RB Leonard Fournette. The Bucs have two star RBs and much like the Browns RB duo are the keys to beating the Saints. The Saints defensive line with Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport and co. can get to the immobile Brady on those deeper drops that the Arians offense seems to feature constantly. Brady has shown a penchant for turnovers in his golden years when pressured. WRs Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski won’t do the team any good if the QB is on his back or being hit when releasing the rock. Again, this is the third meeting between these teams and I don’t think the short passing game will be available to Brady unless the Bucs can run the rock. At times this season Tampa Bay became pass happy and forgot the run game. They can’t be one dimensional against this Saints defense or they will walk out of the Superdome with an L. Arians has to keep the Saints defense off balance and must have a balanced gameplan.
The Buccaneers defense is impossible to run against but the pass defense has been a problem. The corners flat out suck and what makes it worse is the amount of pressure the Bucs defensive line gets on opposing QBs. They led the NFC in sacks and still the pass defense was horrendous. Usually that doesn’t happen. A great rush hides a bad secondary but not in Tampa Bay. There will be plays out there to make for Saints QB Drew Brees and he’s playing as well as I have seen him play in a long time. Buccaneers fail to cover the 3 points and get sent packing.
